If Obama wins, will Israel attack Iran?
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“Not true! Israel can win such a war!”
Despite this, the media is full of descriptions of possible Israeli attacks on Iran. The amount of details is astonishing. A recent article in the Hebrew media went into details on the pilots that the Israeli Air Force will use for an attack on Iran. The 100 or so pilots are to be selected from the reserve forces and not from the regular army. Then it added which information they would have access to prior to the operation, so that readers would know what to ask the pilots next time they meet them at a Tel Aviv coffee shop. The point is that as far as a former IDF officer can judge, the descriptions were exact. The IDF favors reserve forces for attacks, while keeping its regular forces ready for the expected retaliation (see The Cross of Bethlehem).
Detailed plans of the subsequent attack are also readily available. I found one detailing three possible routes for the planes, which included even details on the refueling procedure along the long flight. Again, the three proposed routes match the pattern of IDF operational plans, which at their early stages ask for three alternatives. This is quite amazing. Armies do not publish their operative plans, not even by using proxies. Instead of considering these and other similar articles as proof that Israel can make and win such an attack, these look to me like another layer in the complex disinformation campaign Israel is running. Israel has two options for attacking Iran, and neither one includes planes.
The Israeli Attack on Iran
Following the American presidential election in November, Israel will face a tough period. In December, the NPT Conference on the Middle East will take place; Israel’s aggressive nuclear program will be its main topic. This may force Israel to risk an attack on Iran, especially if Obama—who is openly considered an unfriendly president in Israel—wins (see West and Iran Step Closer to Agreement; Israel Worried). The only chance Israel has to win such a war is by utterly destroying the decision making bodies of the Iranian regime. The Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Guardian Council, the Presidency, the Supreme Leader institution, the military headquarters; all must be gone so that no one would be able to block Hormuz or order the bombing of Tel Aviv. These institutions are in Tehran. These relatively few and concentrated targets would become the target not of Israeli Air Force planes, but of Jericho-style missiles. It must be missiles, because the long fly time of planes would give the Iranian regime a much better chance of making defensive steps.
That option is unlikely to be implemented, because it would almost for sure lead to the obliteration of the State of Israel in the subsequent missile attack; Israel’s nuclear second strike capabilities won’t change that. Instead, Israel may stage a false flag attack on the USA, attempting to trick it into retaliating against Iran. Israel has already attacked American forces in the past—for example the USS Liberty in 1967—thus there is no reason to believe it would refrain from that in the future. The main targets will be the 5th Fleet in the Persian Gulf and the 6th Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea. The reasons for choosing ships and not one of the many American land bases in the area are clear. First, attacks on ships are more efficient than on land bases. Once hit, the entire ship operability is damaged, while a land base may survive even with several damaged buildings. Then, Israel is steadily incrementing its access to NATO’s naval codes (see NATO-Israel Joint Drill: Access Codes); that means it would be easy for Israel to interfere with NATO communications in real time and create a credible false flag event. There is little doubt that the Israeli leadership would prefer this option above any other.
Can the USA block such a hoax? Oddly enough, it will be extremely difficult for the American government to stop such an event, because of the insider status of Israel in NATO, despite its not being a member of this organization. Moreover, Israel and the USA share communications on a military level; this would further facilitate the Israeli deception. In this era, the most efficient defense rendering such attack useless is by widely advertising it beforehand; articles like this one are a proper beginning for this. Only if the Israeli leadership understands that it will be seen as personally responsible for the event and would face international justice, only then it might refrain from the crime. Mr. Romney, Mr. Obama, do we agree on this?
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