Can the USA attack Iran?
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Let me confess. I began this article by writing its end. Continuing this emotive declaration, I want to confess I do that in most of my articles. I never had any reason to disclose this closely kept secret, but today I don’t want to lose readers who would think after the first lines that this is another simple war scenario piece. Please stay with me until after the war.
America Attacks Iran
An American attack on Iran is plausible. In American Led Apocalypse I made over 500 strong points showing America cannot live without a war feeding its military industry. I added to that article a downloadable excel file named American Military Operations. The file contains a partial list of military operations performed by the United States of America since its foundation. It doesn’t include the violent massacres on Native Americans committed by the illegitimate British colonies that became the USA. It doesn’t include an unknown number of classified operations that were never acknowledged by this violent government. It doesn’t include the violence of this government towards its citizens. It doesn’t include operations performed around the world by subservient governments (like Israel and the CAZAB countries) in the name of the noble American Empire. Yet, the list includes over 500 operations! This is more than one per year of existence of this brutal country. Despite the usual self-perception of Americans as a bunch of peaceful folk—happy-go-lucky to the nearest McDonald’s branch—they are probably among the most violent cultures in the history of the world; clearly surpassing the Mongol Empire of Genghis Khan. Unluckily for the American war machine, Iraq and Afghanistan had become tired shadows of a proper war. Thus the White House is industriously seeking for a new candidate to be ruthlessly annihilated; a new enemy for the war of this young decade. What better than Iran?
Moreover, in Yitzhak Obama, I presented circumstantial evidence showing that Israel will try to Wag the Dog, forcing America to attack Iran for the sake of the Zionists. Israel would not directly attack Iran, unless in the non-conventional fashion described in Astonishing Israeli Attack on Iran. Israel is simply unable to perform a conventional attack on such a large and far away target. This provides another possible trigger to such a war. How would it look?
The American archetypal war begins with a pre-dawn, pre-emptive attack wiping most of the other side’s weapons. There is no reason to think that an American conventional attack on Iran would begin differently. Following one of the articles in which I claimed Iran cannot be defeated by either America or Israel, an American reader sent me an email claiming America can turn Iran into glass (meaning it could be wiped out with nuclear weapons). That may happen; but that day would be America’s last day as a legitimate nation. To my taste that already happened after the massacres of Native Americans, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but I am obviously in minority. If nuking Iran, the entire world will turn against America.
After such a dramatic beginning, most probably we will see a missiles war, with missiles hitting targets on both sides. Depending on several variables, Israel may be wiped out.
Yet, a war is won with a soldier sticking a bloody flag atop the other side’s headquarters. If America begins such an event, it must be planning also a large scale ground attack. Coincidentally, the US has surrounded Iran in the last years. Iraq and Afghanistan are little more than large US military bases; Pakistan recently proved being a useful American patsy. Another American ally surrounding Iran is strategic. Bahrain is home to the United States Fifth Fleet. This fleet is responsible for naval forces in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and coast off East Africa as far south as Kenya. This is a large military body, comprising an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group, a Carrier Strike Group, an Expeditionary Strike Group, an Amphibious Ready Group, surface combatants, submarines, maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, and logistics ships. Overall, it includes around fifteen thousand people serving afloat. This would be the main body deploying ground forces into Iran; secondary routes through Iraq and Afghanistan would be far less efficient, and probably lead to the slaughter of American forces in an scenario similar to the one experienced by the Soviet Union army in Afghanistan.
Iran has already warned that if attacked it would block the Straits of Hormuz, causing a dramatic worldwide raise in fuel prices. However, seldom does a side in an armed conflict disclose all its weapons. The second part of this article is dedicated to what may happen if America attacks Iran.
Not So Fast, Mr. Cowboy
“Hey, hey, hey, not so fast, how many cups of coffee did you drink before writing this?” some of my readers may be thinking by now. They are right. The first part of this article was just a fast exposition of what the USA plans are: early strike and then land occupation. However, Iran is not Iraq. Iran is not even Afghanistan. The American nightmare may start even before their first soldier puts a foot on Iran.
From time to time, I comment on articles of Zionist propaganda published in the Israeli media. The most remarkable one has been Is the Vatican Training Hezbollah? Whenever I do that, I carefully explain why the original article is propaganda, and how can one protect himself from these attacks. On December 17, 2011, I published Iran Hits American Satellite which analyzed an article that appeared the same day on Yedihot Aharonot (God bless the time difference between Israel and Bolivia!). The original article claimed Iran had downed an American satellite with a laser. There were no other sources. Yet, despite a general warning on the exactitude of the data, I accepted the possibility. I connected it to the downing of an American drone by the Iranians that had been highly publicized, and to Chinese jamming technologies, which had been apparently passed to Iran in recent years.
Unexpectedly, the article became a hit in China, where it became the headline of that’s day edition of The 4th Media. This sometimes happens also in Israel, where local media searches for external publications to quote on classified issues, in order to circumvent military censure. In that article, I fulfilled that role for China, which may have provided in such a way a collateral corroboration of the event. Despite the lack of sources, I accepted the initial report because just days before, the drone downing had proved Iran possesses jamming technologies, and because I considered the feat possible. In fact, those with background in signals control may notice I had scattered hidden hints in the article on how that could be done.
The article ends: “If the scoop of Yedihot Aharonot is true, then the theatre has changed and the USA cannot anymore attack Iran in its favored fashion. If Iran can blind imagery sensors on CIA satellites, it can also easily hit communications satellites. The American army relies on these satellites for its communications. Coordinating an American attack on Iran without imagery and communications satellites would require an American army that ceased to exist a generation ago. Have we entered the era of Pax Iraniana?” America may have become a victim of its reliance on susceptible technologies.
The implications of Iran possessing advanced jamming technologies go beyond the space theatre. Iran may have acquired complete control of the Straits of Hormuz without having shot even one bullet. In such a case, the USA has already lost a war that didn’t even begin yet.
What Iran could attempt to do now, has already been done in the past. On June 8, 1967, after eight hours of aerial surveillance, Israel launched a two-hour air and naval attack against the USS Liberty. The attack inflicted 34 dead and 172 wounded on a crew of 294. The Israeli planes were jamming all five American emergency radio channels; thus there was no salvation for the USS Liberty from the Sixth Fleet.
The recent downing of the US drone shows Iran has technology much more sophisticated than the used by Israel to jam the USS Liberty emergency frequencies. It may be capable of blinding American lasers and jamming the ship communications system to the extent of literally grounding on water the Fifth Fleet. Everything is in favor of the Iranians; placing jamming equipment on the shore would be cheap and effective. If they have a sense of humor, they may even use the nearby Bushehr nuclear power plant as a source of power. The American fleet is dependent on electromagnetic communications, and thus is susceptible to jamming. I don’t want to expand much on this, but with a sufficiently strong and sophisticated system, Iran may find itself watching over a large pile of very expensive American iron-junk floating nearby the Straits of Hormuz. Breaking the communications between the different parts of the fleet and between the fleet and its headquarters would in fact destroy the fleet. No radars, no targets acquisition system, no coordination between forces; maybe even the fleet planes’ IFF system—allowing recognition of friendly planes—could be jammed. Eventually, the USA may become the one blocking the straights, though without having had any intentions of doing so.
A few years ago was published the excellent The Code Book: The Science of Secrecy from Ancient Egypt to Quantum Cryptography. Simon Singh hints toward the end of his book, that the USA is in possession of a Quantum Cryptography system linking the White House with the Pentagon. This is a truly safe communication system (if the signal passes through the system it means it has not been intercepted. Quantum changes randomly destroy the codification during any attempt of interception). Millions were spent on technology that demands a solid connection between the points and that may be easily broken (though not intercepted). Yet, floating ships depend on electromagnetic signals, unless America wants to move back to communications based on shouts (or colorful flags) between ships and naval bases. As the proven drone downing event, and the conjectured satellite blinding case show, the USA is without a proper defense against the new jamming technologies. Pax Iraniana is in the air.
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