Alawi Republic of Latakia Saves Syria
International conference to take place June 30, in Geneva, may get creative...
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Also the military conflict is in a draw. The Syrian Army gets support from Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, while the rebels are financially supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, and get military help from Western sources smuggling weapons via Turkey. Reliable sources claim that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are paying the salaries of the rebel army. The Syrian regime is presenting this conflict to the Syrian people as a war between Shia and Sunni Arabs. Yet, there is more than a religious and ethnic conflict in this war. Tartus is one of Syria's two main ports; it is also the only Russian navy base in the Mediterranean Sea. Russia is unlikely to give up this strategic asset for the sake of the creation of a Western puppet-regime. To complete this complex picture, Turkey is helping the Syrian Kurds-which seek the creation of a Kurdish state-in an attempt to sabotage the creation of Kurdistan in regions now belonging to Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
Under these conditions, the fighting could persist for years. The downing of the Turkish F-4 proved to NATO that Syria is not Libya. Any Western country attempting to violently oust the Syrian regime will pay dearly. During an elections year in the USA, there is no chance that will happen. Coffins of USA soldiers arriving on the eve of the elections will spoil President Obama’s celebration. Thus, this Saturday, the international conference will try to find a different solution.
Alawi Republic of Latakia
Bashar al-Assad may be forced out of power if he loses the support of the Alawi people. This may happen in three different ways. All Syrian pilots and most senior officers in the army are Alawi; if they turn against him, he'll have no armed forces left. Then, the Alawi mid-class running the Syrian administration may reject him and bring the country to a standstill. Finally, the Alawi-majority coastal areas may decide to support a different leader. These scenarios are unlikely to happen since the Alawi reasonably fear a Sunni-ruled Syria. This is a clear tie.
Syria has already been sliced in the past. In 1938, Hatay—a small territory on the Mediterranean coast—became independent from the French mandate of Syria as the Republic of Hatay. Following a referendum in 1939, Hatay decided to join Turkey, forming the singular panhandle shape that can be seen on the maps of Turkey. Syria still doesn’t recognize that event as legitimate. An important aspect of that event is that the Alawis are one of two main ethnic groups inhabiting Hatay. Essentially, the breakup of Latakia may be seen by Turkey as a repetition of the past. After a few years, a referendum may be held on the issue of the gathering of the Alawis with their brothers in Turkey, under a single political entity. Latakia will join Turkey, giving the latter better access to the strategic gas-fields. This scenario is so tempting to most players that stopping it may be impossible. One more country-which is keeping silent until now-will profit.
If Syria is split, Zion and its elders will applaud. Israel will cement its illegal annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights, and be closer than ever to create a regional empire based on destitution and violence. The survival of a strong and democratic Syria is essential for ensuring regional peace and stability; no region accepting Western occupation has ever known peace. Syria is unlikely to be the exception.
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