Delaying Apocalypse: Iran Announces Missile Drones
New level of deterrence achieved
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The Unbearable Speed of Modern Times
Of course the rushed Iranian development wasn’t a theoretical exercise aimed at checking out their technological capabilities. Iran is facing a real threat by Israel; day or night, Netanyahu and Barak keep hitting the drums of war. In this context, the Iranian disclosure was fascinating but it lacked something. The technical details of their drone were not exposed. This is critical for understanding the exact role these missile-loaded drones will have if a violent conflict erupts. The most important data is the range of the device and which missiles can it carry. Can it fire them at fighter planes?
Reversing the Reverse Engineering
I didn’t try to contact Iran’s Ministry of Defense to find the answer to these intriguing questions. Instead, I assumed that the technologies gathered from the RQ-170 Sentinel were functional in the design of the Iranian Karrar. This American Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is among the most advanced the USA possesses. The US Air Force divides its UAV’s into five different tiers; the RQ-170 Sentinel belongs to Tier III, the most sophisticated class. It is defined as a high altitude, long endurance and low-observable UAV. This means it can reach an altitude of 60,000 to 65,000 feet (19,800 m), a speed of up to 300 knots (560 km/h), and a whooping 3,000-nautical-mile (6,000 km) radius, with a 24 hour time-on-station capability. It was the wrong UAV to be lost. Even if the Karrar performance can’t match it completely, it can probably reach Israel.
In 1939, Germany was the perceived champion, as the USA and Israel are perceived now. It meant nothing. The point is not the technological advantage, but the moral one; here Israel fails. With the speed modern technologies move around, Iran may have found an efficient answer to Israel threats. The expensive step with these technologies is the development; after a factory is established, the item becomes dirt cheap. It is safe to assume Iran will have in the near future a fleet of UAV’s capable of reaching Israel and striking military targets accurately. This will create an almost solid wall between the two countries, generating an effective deterrence. Israeli planes may be targeted in their bases; or maybe even along the way. To this deterrence must be added the roughly 200,000 missiles Iran and Israel claim are being aimed at Israel by various sides. For the sake of their political survival, both Netanyahu and Barak need a war with Iran. Yet, following the latter latest disclosures, we may have crossed the point of no-return, from where it is not possible anymore for Israel to begin a missile war with expectations of winning it. Apocalypse will arrive on another day.
A few days ago, I published 15-Day Execution Order. Time is running out. I won't fight my de facto execution. Yet, I want to remind Bolivia that its legal predecessor executed Tupac Katari-an Aymara leader-in 1781, he was torn by his extremities into four pieces. Despite the government rhetoric, nothing was learned since then. Katari's last words were:
Naya saparukiw jiwayapxitata, nayxarusti waranqa, waranqanakaw kut'anixa...
You are only killing me, we will return millions!
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