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Dec 15, 2012: Third Intifada Begins

"This is the beginning of a third Palestinian Intifada, which is erupting from the heart of Hebron and will spread to all of Palestine."

 

 

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One must be careful with this type of evidence; after all there is more than one reason for the Israeli political police, Shin Beth, to fake such a video. Moreover, considering the clothing of the participants it would be remarkably easy to falsify it even for the youngest agent, maybe as a graduation project. Yet, the video matches other developments on the ground and thus it is credible. It was posted on YouTube on December 15, 2012, by an alleged coalition of Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. These are the four main Palestinian political parties. Considering the disintegration of Palestine into Hamas-controlled Gaza and Fatah-controlled West Bank, this video is by itself groundbreaking news. However, it contains more than an image of unity. Its main message is "This is the beginning of a third Palestinian Intifada, which is erupting from the heart of Hebron and will spread to all of Palestine." This will be achieved through the newly established "National Union Battalions."

Let me translate this into simple terms. Following the acceptance of Palestine as an Observer State by the UN, the main Palestinian factions have united and declared Palestine's Independence War on Israel. Is this credible? Will Palestine declare independence on May 14, 2013?



"This is the beginning of a third Palestinian Intifada, which is erupting from the heart of Hebron and will spread to all of Palestine." December 15, 2012 - Hebron

New Uprising

The video at the left was filmed the day before and shows violence in Hebron. Palestinian police officers are seen clashing with Hamas supporters during a rally in Hebron which marked the group's 25th anniversary. The demonstrators marched from the city hall toward an Israeli checkpoint while the Palestinian officers attempted to disperse them. The demonstrators threw stones at them, and a number of them were detained. Due to resolution issues it is difficult to say for sure, but several Israeli soldiers may have participated in the event.

This may look like a contradiction to the claims made in the video above, but it is not so. It has been five years since Hamas supporters were allowed to gather in the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority police was just making sure they would not reach the IDF checkpoint. Hence, the video supports the claim that a new coalition had been achieved.

Since November, there has been an increase in West Bank protests. According to the IDF, 130 attacks were launched from the West Bank in that month; most of them were defined as "difficult to contain." AMAN, Israel's military intelligence, reports a sharp increase in alerts suggesting attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians. Moreover, Palestinian Authority police stopped arresting Hamas operatives in the West Bank, and they are allowed to act freely. The Shin Beth released reports claiming that the West Bank is ripe for a third Intifada. Thus, at least the message in the video above is credible.

False Trigger

The IDF is fighting an outdated war. One of its generals, who refused to be identified by name, said on the same day to Yedioth Aharonot, Israel's largest newspaper, "There are two scenarios that may indicate the future: The reopening of Hamas' da'wah [charity] institutions in the West Bank and the complete suspension of arrests of Hamas operatives." He added that the trigger for a third Intifada may end up being Jewish terror, such as "Price Tag" acts or clashes between Palestinians and settlers. One of the saddest things in this world is an old general trying to repeat a war from his youth; this unnamed general did just that.

First Intifada Poster

First Intifada Poster - 1990
"Sdeh Kotzim," "Field of Thorns" is the name of the IDF Operational Plan for an Insurrection in the Occupied Territories

The First Intifada was formally triggered on December 8, 1987. Two days before that, an Israeli salesman had been stabbed to death in Gaza; denizens suspected a retaliation from Israel. Then, an IDF tank transporter ran into a group of Palestinians from Jabalya Refugee Camp in Gaza. It killed four and injured seven, creating what looked like a retaliation. Subsequent violent protests became the Intifada. Yet, the ground had been burning for months; in despair, the IDF sent training units to the Occupied Territories since the beginning of that year. Years later, in September 2000, the Palestinian unrest was of a similar magnitude. The Second Intifada began on September 28, 2000, when Ariel Sharon, Likud candidate for Israeli Prime Minister, entered the Temple Mount accompanied by over 1,000 security guards. He said, "the Temple Mount is in our hands and will remain in our hands. It is the holiest site in Judaism and it is the right of every Jew to visit the Temple Mount." By the end of 2012, the IDF is betting on a third variant of the theme. Yet, recent Palestinian actions show that a similar scenario is unlikely to happen.

IDF in Action

"Just Following Orders" | by Latuff

 

Intifada by RiotKarma

Intifada by RiotKarma

Phase is Everything in Life

"Phase is everything in life," a physicist friend told me once, and I found it impossible to refute his claim. Anybody thinking that the Palestinians will follow in 2013 the same patterns as they did in 1987 and 2000 is at least out of phase with our world and probably out of touch with reality. As analyzed in May 14, 2013, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has proved that he possesses a sharp historical perspective by concentrating his efforts on the recognition of Palestine as an Observer State on the anniversary of the historic 1947 vote on UN Resolution 181, better known as the UN Partition Plan of Palestine. He outsmarted Israel, which concentrated its efforts on the annulment of the resolution, instead of attempting to change its symbolic date. This was the act of a mature statesman who realized that the negotiations had entered a dead end alley. He is unlikely to surrender to settlers or IDF provocations and has a clear goal: complete independence. For historical reasons, his best choice would be May 14, 2013. Hence, the IDF's published scenario is unlikely. The date the violent phase of the struggle will begin on is not related to Israeli actions.

Regardless of the name used by the media, the Third Intifada has not begun. What we are seeing is a Palestinian national, coordinated effort to achieve independence. The video on the top of this page announces the soon to begin Palestinian War of Independence. Are you ready, Lieutenant General Benny Gantz?

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