"Israel will win due to Technological Advantage!"
Mr. Netanyahu, be prepared to play Goebbels
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Similarly staged productions show developments being made by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), a USA government body which develops new military technologies. While carefully avoiding details, they project an image of military power. When all this fails, intimidation by brute force is used. After the publication of one of my articles on the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, an American reader approached me saying: “We can transform Iran into glass at any moment,” making a not very subtle allusion to a possible use of nuclear weapons by either the USA or Israel. In fact, this is just wishful thinking. If the USA initiates a global winter it would be unlikely to survive it. The People won’t accept another Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Israel’s approach is strikingly similar. The most emphasized item there is the anti-missiles technologies being developed by Israel, with significant help from the USA and Singapore. On several occasions, I showed how even using data provided by the IDF, it is easy to prove that Israel is manipulating the data, increasing at least threefold the success rate of its short-range system. The medium-range and long-range ones are unknowns since they have not been extensively tested. Yet, they are promoted as deterrents to a future war. No less popular in Israeli propaganda productions is the strength of its air force, which is based on American equipment and technologies; nowadays excruciatingly detailed articles on how an air-attack on Iran would proceed can be found in the Hebrew media. Invariably, the articles portray a happy end for Israel. Finally, Israel likes to stress that if everything fails, they have the “Samson Option,” the use of nuclear missiles to be shot from Jericho missiles or from the German submarines fleet that Israel obsessively keeps enlarging. Over all, Israel and the USA look like carbon copies of each other. Yet, are they the champions?
Back to Nazi Germany
Nowadays the following fact is often forgotten. For many years, Germany was the most technologically and scientifically advanced country in the world. Most scientific articles written until well into the twentieth century were written in German. Even now, the German propulsion system used by the Dolphin submarines provided to Israel is considered the most advanced in the world. At the beginning of WWII, America was far behind Germany. Its surface-to-surface missiles were the first of their kind; the V1 and V2 made history. It also developed ground-to-air missiles which were not used operationally; in fact they were too advanced for that battlefield. It had electronic and radar programs, a nuclear program, and even plans for a space-based weapon to become operational by the end of that century. America’s appearance as a technological powerhouse after the war was the result of its use of German scientists to catapult its formerly flimsy capabilities.
In 1939, Germany was the perceived champion, as the USA and Israel are perceived now. It meant nothing. It gave Germany an initial advantage in the war, but in a long term conflict, this is irrelevant. DARPA SCHMARPA, moral righteousness is the relevant parameter to ensure people’s loyalty and victory.
“But Israel Truly Has Technological Advantage!”
Two events from the last year strengthen my claim. One appeared as a scoop of the Israeli military intelligence, which leaked it to Yedihot Ahahronot, the leading Israeli newspaper. I commented on the event in Iran Hits American Satellite, which in its turn became the main source to various international outlets. Apparently, on December 17, 2011, Iran blinded an American satellite with a laser weapon. I analyzed the event there; the original report is credible. We are talking asymmetric warfare here. For as long as designing a 30W laser is vastly cheaper than launching a satellite, the very expensive American and Israeli space toys are of little value. The same applies to the anti-missile weapons mentioned in the previous section. An anti-missile warhead costs around $50,000, according to Israeli sources. A Qassam missile is built for less than $100. Bankers will decide the fate of such a war; technical capabilities are of little relevance. Shortly after the satellite event, even America acknowledged that Iran has downed a drone which was proudly shown resting in an Iranian hangar. The same asymmetry principle applies here.
American and Israeli generals may keep congratulating each other for a while; they will keep the propaganda charade going on. Yet, systematic analyses of the military reality faced by Israel show that unless it uses political means—for example, peace treaties—the country is indefensible. Both Iran and Israel agree that around 200,000 missiles are aimed at the latter. Most of these are dirt-cheap dumb-missiles that can be barely intercepted and only at a great cost. A complete list of targets is beyond the scope of this article (would you read a 100,000 word piece?), but it is useful to mention that Israel owns vast industrial areas next to major residential areas. A worrying example is the Makhteshim plant near Beer Sheva, which produces methyl isocyanate. This extremely toxic substance is used in the production of pesticides. It became famous during the night of December 3, 1984, when it was spilled in the Bhopal installations of a company now owned by Dow Chemical. Defined as the worst industrial disaster in history, it caused the death of thousands, many more were crippled and the ground is still contaminated there. At any moment, there is more of this substance in Israel than there was in Bhopal. The Israeli capability to deal with such a disaster is nil, as it was recently admitted by the IDF (see IDF: Home Front Command not ready for war with Iran). Following a missile attack destroying several similar installations, the civilian infrastructure of the country would be lost.
Israel may well have a technological advantage over countries it perceives as enemies. The same holds for the USA. Yet, it doesn’t matter. We may well be approaching a re-enactment of September 1, 1939, when Hitler attacked Poland, and WWII officially began in the West. If so, Mr. Netanyahu, be prepared to play Goebbels.
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